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Monday, April 13, 2015

U.S. Department of State: Nalyvaichenko may be son of a bitch, but he’s our son a bitch!

The White House seems to have made quite an error when placing yet another tycoon from the Yanukovich team right into the presidential chair in Ukraine, naturally during the so called elections. It’s obvious now that Poroshenko isn’t worth the huge sums invested into him, for he’s busy not with strengthening of the American outpost in Central Eurasia, but rather with the political and business projects of personal interest for him. Indicative opposition to Kolomoyskyi is just the first of many predictable squabbles between the Ukrainian oligarchs. Inaction of American sponsors of the Ukrainian project amid poorly concealed economic collapse and pauperization of the population is going to bring complete havoc and loss of control over the situation by Washington.
It appears that the White House isn’t going to forgive numerous Poroshenko’s blunders on international arena giving Moscow a head diplomatic start again and again. Western partners of Ukraine were actually misinformed about the real capabilities of the Ukrainian army which failed to subdue pro-Russian separatists in Donbas despite the comprehensive aid of Washington, including special equipment and military advisors as well as diplomatic and financial support. Poroshenko has put Obama twice into some awkward position due to complete fiasco of the summer-autumn and winter military campaigns of the Ukrainian army. Ukrainian president also actually forced key European leaders to bow and scrape before Kremlin to escape ultimate collapse of Euro-Atlantic policy towards Ukraine. Now Poroshenko threatens to make darks and drakes of all the vigorous effort by Merkel and Hollande. He may well saboteur again Minsk agreements.



Actually, Verkhovna Rada amendments to the law on special status for eastern regions of Ukraine have frozen further implementation of Minsk agreements. The amendments provoked open irritation with both German Chancellor and French president scary of serious image losses in case peace process in Donbas is again stumbles. It appears that the USA (excluding some ‘hot heads’) is interested now in preserving the status-quo in eastern Ukraine. Another failure of the Ukrainian army is able to result in change of power in Kyiv on some scenario different from that of the White House. In case the Unites States is really after surviving of the Ukrainian project it needs to oust Poroshenko on its own, before it is done by oligarchy clans sorting it out with each other, radical nationalists or just ‘infuriated citizens’.

Judging by the report of the USA ambassador in Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt addressed to Secretary of State John Kerry, Washington plans to rely mainly on forceful structures in Ukraine to correct the mistakes already done. The first in this list is the chief of the State Security Service of Ukraine Nalyvaichenko.
Pyatt is strongly worried by the struggle started to share economy spheres between regional business elites and Kyiv with its control over some regions gradually shrinking. Further, the ambassador makes it clear that there’s an urgent need now in some measures to hamper decentralization of power and total loss of Kiev’s influence on oligarchic representatives. He also points to the danger of this struggle transforming into a hot phase involving armed units. Such developments may result in disintegration of Ukraine as a state and loss of the regional gains achieved by Americans in a really hard struggle. And so, Washington is set, even being fully aware of the risks to the image of Ukraine, to launch the plan already available aimed at ensuring ‘forced’ transfer of power to SBU chief Nalyvaichenko.

In other words, controlled military coup in Ukraine is of vital need for Americans interested in introduction of emergency measures to ‘temporally’ limit the functions of democratic institutions, including president, government and parliament so that not to fully lose control over the social and political processes in the country.

It’s no mere chance that both Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are synchronically in a fuss. The first hastily submitted to the parliament draft bill No 2541 ‘On legal status of the martial law’, according to which the authority of the Ukrainian president can’t be limited once martial law is introduced. The second one, in his hope of Berlin support, hurriedly went on the urgent visit to Merkel. In Germany he declared that Minsk agreements and elections in Donbas could be realized even without total disarmament of the Ukrainian separatists. It seems that those convulsions won’t be able to help political survival of the persons who visibly showed to Obama they are good for nothing actually.

No doubt, tough authoritarian regime is going to be active in Ukraine for some time to trample down all the manifestations of regional separatism. Sure thing, some extremes and deviations from the common democratic practice can’t be excluded towards all the ‘disagreeing’, ‘spies’, ‘deserters’, ‘opportunists’ and just ‘unreliable’ national minorities. And the USA is set to stay supportive of Nalyvaichenko despite the fact he’s son of a bitch, so that not to lose Ukraine once and forever.


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