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Thursday, January 15, 2015

Third Maidan is just a question of a little time

While President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and country’s PM Arsenyi Yatsenyuk violently defend independence of Ukraine and soliciting European Union for more credits, Ukraine goes deeper into economic crisis and the fact is confirmed by the World Bank that downgraded the GDP decline expectation for Ukraine in 2015 to 2.3 percent while gap in the balance of payments will be around 2.7 percent.

The current economic situation in Ukraine such as nearly destroyed economy, idle industry, tax collection issues, exports decline, lack of investment, cutback of social programs and benefits, urged by growing influence of nationalists, results in substantial discontent growth among Ukraine’s population we already witnessed in a number of Ukrainian regions and cities. In Kharkiv and Odessa radical nationalists were behind the unrest, while in Volhynia the discontent was caused by current economic policy of acting authorities, and likely the dissatisfaction will continue spreading over Ukraine.

Obviously it’s clear now that Ukraine is a bankrupt and without financial aid from countries of European Union the things will be getting worse. Earlier credit granting raised no questions, but today statements of Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are not enough to receive help from Europe which unexpectedly became a hostage of crisis in Ukraine and forced to look for way out and not hurrying up to provide Ukraine with any significant financial aid.

Despite the fact that between Orange Revolution and Euromaidan is a gap of 11 years, we can’t say that the last revolution was successful and we can suppose that in the nearest future a new wave of protests will cover Ukraine and the same dissatisfied people who wanted to remove oligarchs, but favored the entrenchment of their power and improved their well-being while the majority of Ukrainians found themselves below the poverty line, will become the major driving force of that new Maidan.

The last two revolutions impressively changed Ukraine, but did it change for the best, and can we say it turned into genuine democracy? We see that Kiev’s policy gives no desired effect to Ukraine and Europe. Ambitious plans of Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk to make Ukraine a powerful European state and NATO-member are utterly ruined by their lack of ability to implement economic reforms and defeat corrupt practices in Ukraine which now is the most corrupted country in Europe with very cloudy outlooks.

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